Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
