A mere two months prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have piled up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
