A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
